中文题目：风险管理视域下的知识产权海关保护问题研究
中文摘要：
我国石油供需矛盾日益加剧，对石油进口的依赖加强。从1993 年开始中国成为石油净进口国，2009年首次突破50%的警戒线，达到51.3%。最新统计数据显示，2012年1-2月，我国生产原油3369万吨，同比减少1.1%；净进口原油4631万吨，同比增长11.9%；表观消费量8000万吨，同比增长6%，对外依存度达到57.9%。这意味着我国原油对外依存度仍在继续攀升。基于国内经济发展的需要、国家能源安全战略的需要以及企业自身发展的需要，积极开展海外石油勘探开发项目，获取海外石油资源是我国石油企业的必然选择。海外石油勘探开发项目与国内石油勘探开发项目相比，具有更加复杂多变的风险。研究海外石油勘探开发项目风险分析的理论与方法对我国石油企业勘探开发海外石油资源具有现实指导意义。
论文首先分析了海外石油勘探开发项目特点及风险特征。石油勘探开发项目过程十分复杂，与其他工程项目相比，具有技术密集、综合性强、投资规模大、项目时间长、不确定性因素多等特点。海外石油勘探开发项目与国内石油勘探开发项目相比，在勘探开发的原理与技术方面，并没有大的差别，但关键在于“海外”两字。因此，海外石油勘探开发项目除了具有国内石油勘探开发项目本身的特点外，还有受合同约束，资料有限、评价期短，以经济效益为中心的特点。海外石油勘探开发项目的风险特征有：油田多在敏感地区，政治风险突出；风险与目标紧密相关 ；风险具有相对性；风险的可变性。
然后，系统性识别了海外石油勘探开发项目的风险类型，风险因素之间的关系，以及风险影响后果。识别出海外石油勘探开发项目主要风险有：政治风险、经济风险、地质风险、工程技术风险、地理风险、管理风险、文化风险、法律风险。其次，选用了风险矩阵法来评估海外石油勘探开发项目风险，以专家评分法和模糊数学法来估计各类风险发生概率，根据风险影响后果分别估计各类风险影响程度，以Borda序值法对风险按照重要性排序并计算出风险权重，以加权法得到项目整体风险等级。最后，通过案例分析说明该方法适用于我国海外石油勘探开发项目风险分析。
英文题目：（暂无）
英文摘要：
Regarding the increasing discrepancy between the supply and demand of oil within our country, especially the dependence on oil's import, obtaining oil resource from outside can not only meet with the domestic economic improvement and oil company’s own development, but also be strategically necessary to the energy security. In this condition, overseas projects of oil exploration and development come as an inevitable choice for internal oil companies. However, compared to internal projects of oil exploration and development, overseas projects face with much more complicated and unstable risks.
With this respect, research about the theory and method of risk in those projects takes a guiding role in getting more oil resource for our oil companies. First of all, this paper analyzes the characteristics of overseas oil exploration and development project, and the characteristics of project’ risk. In section 3, the author identifies the risk categories, the relationship among those discerned risks, the risks implied in contract items and the results of risk. Section 4 is followed as the main part of this paper. In which, the author uses risk matrix method to evaluate the risk of project, selects expert scoring and fuzzy math method to estimate the probability of kinds of risk, offers qualitative and quantitative method to estimate the impact of kinds of risk according to different consequences, and employs Borda to order the risk factors according to respective importance. Then author uses weighting method to get the comprehensive risk of the project. At last, an case is studied in Section 5 in order to illustrate the applicability of such kind of method presented in the paper and it's proved as a result.
